Presenting at JSM 2013, Montreal

This August I’ll be presenting a paper at JSM 2013 in Montreal.  This piece of work is a joint effort by Jakub Bijak, Jason Hilton and myself, titled Statistical versus Agent-Based Demography: Bridging the Gap with Gaussian Process Emulators (click the link to see the abstract).

This conference will be, shall we say, rather enormous.  There are apparently more than 6,000 statisticians due to attend (!), and given that I’m not a statistician myself, I suspect I’m in for some challenging questions.

I’m also ashamed to admit that this will be my first-ever visit to Canada, despite the fact that I spent a significant chunk of my life growing up in Pennsylvania, just slightly to the south.  I’m looking forward to visiting our northern friends — my only regret is that my visit falls well outside of hockey season, which is by far the best sport, and I’ve little doubt Canadians are by far the best people to watch it with.  Ah, well — gives me an excuse to go back another time!  I’ll have to make do with my NHL Gamecenter Live subscription until then.

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Paper accepted to ECMS 2013

I’ve just had a paper accepted to the European Conference on Modelling and Simulation 2013 which is being held from 27-30 May in Ålesund, Norway.  The paper is titled Simulating the Cost of Social Care in an Ageing Population and was written by myself, Jason Hilton, Jason Noble, and Jakub Bijak.  We were accepted to the Policy Modelling track, so I’m hoping for some interesting feedback from other researchers who may be working on projects aimed at health and social care.

The reviews were very positive on the whole, so we’re pleased about that!  Corrections are still to come before the paper enters the Proceedings, but in the meantime you can find the submitted draft here.

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Book review published

The review of Daniel Courgeau’s 2012 volume Probability and Social Science my colleague Jakub Bijak and I put together has now been published!

You can find it here.  Sadly the article is behind a paywall, at least for the moment, but if you require a pre-print version please get in touch.

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Journal paper accepted!

I’m pleased to say that I’ve had a paper accepted to a journal this week: an article written by myself and my colleagues Jakub Bijak, Jason Hilton, Jason Noble and Viet Cao.  The paper is called “When Demography Met Social Simulation: A Tale of Two Modelling Approaches” and will appear in the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS) as soon as we submit the final version with a few small changes.

JASSS is an open-access journal, so once the article is available I’ll post a link here.  Hopefully this run of good fortune will continue as I submit my paper to ECMS 2013 in Norway on 15 February!

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Book review in press

My colleague Jakub Bijak and I recently put together a book review on Daniel Courgeau’s 2012 book for Springer ‘Probability and Social Science‘.  Jakub is a demographer and I’m an agent-based modeller with interests in social systems, so we decided to put our heads together and do an interdisciplinary book review for Daniel’s volume.  Spoiler alert: it’s a very good book.

Our review is in the journal Population Studies and will be available online soon — we just received information on how to make it open-access today :)

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Science and the press: Who’s to blame?

There’s an interesting article in the New Yorker today about Neuroscience called ‘Neuroscience Fiction’, which comments about the recent fashion for neuro-everything: neuroeconomics, neuroethics, etc. etc.  Perhaps, finally, we’re beginning to reach the end of this trend?  The article implies that we are, which is good news — yet this doesn’t erase the fact that the past two decades of this indicate science is becoming increasingly dominated by what sells rather than by what is useful.

That article links to another by Alissa Quart which has an interesting quote on this:

“A team of British scientists recently analyzed nearly 3,000 neuroscientific articles published in the British press between 2000 and 2010 and found that the media regularly distorts and embellishes the findings of scientific studies. Writing in the journal Neuron, the researchers concluded that “logically irrelevant neuroscience information imbues an argument with authoritative, scientific credibility.” Another way of saying this is that bogus science gives vague, undisciplined thinking the look of seriousness and truth.

The problem isn’t solely that self-appointed scientists often jump to faulty conclusions about neuroscience. It’s also that they are part of a larger cultural tendency, in which neuroscientific explanations eclipse historical, political, economic, literary and journalistic interpretations of experience. A number of the neuro doubters are also humanities scholars who question the way that neuroscience has seeped into their disciplines, creating phenomena like neuro law, which, in part, uses the evidence of damaged brains as the basis for legal defense of people accused of heinous crimes, or neuroaesthetics, a trendy blend of art history and neuroscience.”

In science we’re very quick to blame the science journalists for willfully distorting research to make headlines.  Yet as Alissa points out, the researchers themselves are the ones pushing a fair bit of this nonsense — and they don’t necessarily speak up when their findings hit the headlines, distorted or not.  We’re in an environment where competition for funding is paramount, where permanent jobs are scarcer than ever, and where the pressure to find a unique niche is extremely high as a result — so creating that niche sometimes becomes more critical than performing good research.  We sometimes end up trying to squeeze together whatever ideas we can find into a lump just big enough to produce another published paper, then see how far we can milk it.

Speaking personally I know that I roll my eyes whenever I see one of the endless procession of papers in my field that applies autopoiesis to everything in the world ever.  I believe it’s part of the same process, on the whole, and it’s something we need to find a way to curtail.

With that in mind, where do our responsibilities lie here?  Do we call out our colleagues when they do dumb stuff, or do we direct our ire at nonsense only when it hits the popular press?  Do we try to keep our own community in line, and in doing so risk alienation (a true disaster for those of us low on the career ladder desperate for networking opportunities)?

It’s a difficult question.  After all, many of our colleagues do dumb stuff because they believe that dumb stuff, and so taking them to task over it is very unlikely to be productive.  I know I’ve certainly decided that someone is a jerk when they criticised me for reasons I believed to be ill-founded.  In the end, my paper stayed how it was, and the only thing that changed was that I resolved never to endorse or otherwise encourage the work of that individual.

Of course, my paper may very well have been dumb and I just simply don’t see it, but even if that is the case at this point the vast majority of scientific papers are dumb and/or uninteresting — so where do we draw the line?  How do we pick the particularly egregiously dumb stuff out of the endless piles that science produces these days?  Isn’t a certain amount of dumbness a necessary precursor to doing something of greater interest, a byproduct of early explorations?

My feeling is that science is now reaching a critical decision point in this respect.  Last year the UK alone published 124,000 journal articles.  Out of those, I expect we could skip at least 99% of these without losing much — very few papers have truly ground-breaking results to report.  At some stage we have to find a way to reduce this pressure to publish anything and everything at all costs, or we will simply drown in the resulting mess — and all the while, unscrupulous types will craft some of that mess into misleading headlines to make a buck or to build a reputation.

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Submitted a paper to IUSSP

Just yesterday my colleagues Jakub Bijak and Jason Hilton and myself submitted a paper (4-page extended abstract, with a paper to follow if accepted) to the XXVII IUSSP Population Conference, to be held in Busan, South Korea next August.  The paper is titled “Statistical Individuals and Simulated Individuals: Analysing Agent-Based Demographic Models with Gaussian Process Emulators“, which is a very long title… need to take a rest after saying all that.  The content is essentially a distillation of our recent work on agent-based models for the study of population dynamics, with an emphasis on the potential impact of this type of simulation methodology on event-history analysis.

The conference is run by the IUSSP, the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, based in Paris.  The attendees will be 2-3,000 demographers across all areas of the discipline, so this will hopefully be my first opportunity to be on hand to present our recent work to the demography community.  I’m very interested to see how these conferences work; my field is quite small in comparison, and our big conferences are perhaps 1/10th the size of this one!

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Back in Southampton

I’ve returned to the UK now after a lengthy sojourn in East Asia, which turned out to be genuinely life-changing.  Following an exciting and interesting conference in Taipei, I traveled to Tokyo, where I got married (!), and enjoyed 3 fantastic weeks of relaxation and exploration with my partner.

Future posts will get back into more academic matters as I settle into my normal patterns once again.  I suspect there may be some exciting research developments on hand in the near future….

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4th World Congress on Social Simulation

I’m currently attending the 4th World Congress on Social Simulation, which is being held in Taipei, Taiwan at National Chengchi University.  I gave a presentation today entitled ‘Semi-Artificial Models of Populations: Connecting Demography with Agent-Based Modelling’.  I enjoyed giving the talk, particularly the encouraging and valuable feedback I received from colleagues from Russia, Japan and America.

I’ve uploaded my slides — bear in mind they were written in somewhat of a rush!

As for Taiwan, so far it’s been fantastic.  The streets are lively and clean, public transport is fast, cheap and reliable, the food is great, and people have been very polite and helpful.  Taipei 101 was particularly impressive; the building design is striking and the views are spectacular.  I’m looking forward to seeing more sights during the rest of my week here in Taiwan!

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Persistence and Uncertainty in the Academic Career

Good article for those of us who are substantially irked by the short-sighted use of fixed-term contracts in academia:

http://arxiv.org/abs/1204.0752  (PDF download link on the right-hand side)

The important bit of the abstract:

“We introduce a model of proportional growth which reproduces these two observations, and additionally accounts for the significantly right-skewed distributions of career longevity and achievement in science. Using this theoretical model, we show that short-term contracts can amplify the effects of competition and uncertainty making careers more vulnerable to early termination, not necessarily due to lack of individual talent and persistence, but because of random negative production shocks. We show that fluctuations in scientific production are quantitatively related to a scientist’s collaboration radius and team efficiency.”

And the discussion gives a nice summary:

“One serious drawback of short-term contracts are the tedious employment searches, which displace career momentum by taking focus energy away from the laboratory, diminishing the quality of administrative performance within the institution, and limiting the individual’s time to serve the community through external outreach [3, 6]. These momentum displacements can directly transform into negative productivity shocks to scientific output. As a result, there may be increased pressure for individuals in short-term contracts to produce quantity over quality, which encourages the presentation of incomplete analysis and diminishes the incentives to perform sound science. These changing features may precipitate in a ‘tragedy of the scientific commons’….

However, this model also shows that the onset of a fluctuation-dominant (volatile) labor market can also be amplified when the labor market is governed by short-term contracts  reinforced by a short-term appraisal system. In such a system, career sustainability relies on continued recent short-term production, which can encourage rapid publication of low-quality science. In professions where there is a high level of competition for employment, bottlenecks form whereby most careers stagnate and fail to rise above an initial achievement barrier. Instead, these careers stagnate, and in a profession that shows no mercy for production lulls, these careers undergo a ‘sudden death’ because they were ‘frozen out’ by a labor market that did not provide insurance against endogenous fluctuations. Such a system is an employment ‘death trap’ whereby most careers stagnate and ‘flat-line’ at zero production. However, at the same time, a small fraction of the population overcomes the initial selection barrier and are championed as the ‘big winners’, possibly only due to random
chance.”

This makes for compelling reading, especially given that the usual justification for the use of fixed-term contracts seems to be the alleged benefits of the inevitable competition for posts — which our overlords would have us believe allows the cream to rise to the top.  What we see here is that, in contrast to the management view, short-term contracts amplify the effects of problems in research production, and those who rise to the top may have done so purely by being lucky rather than particularly skilled.  Meanwhile, the system creates a massive wastage of talent by cutting short potentially promising careers, given that research productivity can be stunted by problems in research teams (which continue to grow larger and more complex over time) or unfortunate bad luck in experiment outcomes or similar, and not necessarily by a lack of effort or skill.

Meanwhile, the focus on short-term contracts with short-term appraisals leads to an intense pressure to publish sub-par science more frequently, rather than well-considered, long-term research with more potential impact.  The loss of productivity due to worries over job insecurity and time-consuming, highly-competitive job application procedures is also not to be underestimated.

When I started my first postdoc I was advised to start looking for my next job when I still had a year left on my contract.  I did so and found, as most others do, that finding an appropriate academic position is very difficult due to the extreme specialisation of every post — if you’re unlucky and there’s not much in your area kicking off when you happen to be looking, you might end up struggling for work through no fault of your own.  Not to mention that it wasn’t uncommon for me to have to send 50+ pages of material to each potential job, causing me to waste rather a lot of time that I could’ve been using for my research.  In the end, getting your next post seems to rely much more on luck, timing, and networking than anything else.

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